The best week on the entire golf calendar has finally arrived, The Masters at Augusta National, the only major tournament that never switches venues. Because of this, course history is a major component in trying to determine who you should put your money on for this weekend. Other key factors to consider are Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 Scoring, SG: Tee to Green, and Scrambling.
SG: Approach
Augusta National is a second-shot golf course, because of the many different slopes and contours that cover the green, making it very important on hitting your target if you want a good birdie look. In fact, over the last six years at the Masters, the eventual winner led the field in SG: Approach four times, and was 2nd and 3rd in the field the other two times. This may be THE biggest factor to look at heading into this week.
Top 5 players in the field in SG: Approach this season on the PGA Tour
1. Collin Morikawa
2. Justin Thomas
3. Matt Wallace
4. Will Zalatoris
5. Tyrel Hatton
SG: Around the Green & Scrambling
Winning major tournaments isn’t necessarily about the birdies you make, but it’s the bogeys you don’t make. It’s almost impossible to hit every single green in regulation at Augusta with the severe slopes and fast run-offs the greens present. The player’s short game will most certainly be put up to the test this week, and the guys who can get up and down most efficiently will more than likely be up at the top of the board come tournament’s end.
Top 5 players SG: Around the Green
1. Christian Bezuidenhout
2. Kevin Na
3. Dylan Fritelli
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Webb Simpson
Top 5 Players in Scrambling
- Webb Simpson
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Harris English
4. Ian Poulter
5. Si Woo Kim
Par 4 Scoring Average
Anybody worth their salt this week should have no issue being able to score on the Par 5’s at Augusta, which all four historically have played under par throughout the tournament. Picking up strokes there shouldn’t be an issue, it’s the players who can take advantage of the par 4’s that I think might be able to separate themselves from the pack.
Top 5 Players in Par 4 Scoring Average
T1. Webb Simpson & Justin Thomas
T3. Patrick Cantlay & Scottie Scheffler
T5. Joaquin Niemann & Ryan Palmer
Course History
Knowing your way around Augusta National is the single most important factor in this tournament. There have only been three players in the history of the Masters to win the tournament in their debut, but two of them won it in the first two years the Masters existed. Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 won in his Master’s debut, beating Ed Sneed and Tom Watson in a playoff. I will be staying away from guys who are playing Augusta for the first time this week such as Will Zalatoris. I’ll also be staying away from guys like Ryan Palmer, who has played in this tournament before, but the last time he was here was back in 2015. Both of those guys are in good form but will lack the course knowledge and experience I believe is needed, to put on the green jacket. With that being said, it’s time to get into who I think is best to target this week at Augusta.
Chalk
To Win
Justin Thomas (10/1)
The #2 golfer in the world has already found the winner’s circle this year winning the Players Championship, the 14th victory of his career. Thomas now comes to Augusta National still searching for his first green jacket. You won’t find a better trend at Augusta without winning it all than Thomas, who has improved his finishing position every single year. Last year he finally cracked into the Top 10, finishing in solo 4th position, breaking par in all four rounds. In 20 career rounds at Augusta, Thomas has 12 rounds under par. Thomas is one of the best ball-strikers on tour. He is 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Thomas is in awesome form heading into this week, at a golf course he seems to like more and more every year he plays it.
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Jon Rahm is coming to Augusta for the 6th time, but the first time as a father. Rahm’s wife Kelley just gave birth to their son Kepa Cahill Rahm last Saturday. This would scare a lot of people off of Rahm, whose focus couldn’t be farther away from the golf course. However, I think this will be more of a benefit for Rahm. Billy Horschel just won the WGC Match Play event (yes different format) after spending time away from golf, and time with his family. He credited the mental break as helping him throughout that week. I believe the same will be true for Rahm, who is coming to a golf course this week he likes. Last 3 starts at The Masters, he’s finished in the Top 10 all three times, and in 16 career rounds at Augusta, Rahm has shot under par 11 times. He’s 14th on tour in SG: Approach, and 2nd in SG: Tee To Green. If Rahm is finally going to break through for his first major title, he going to have to be better around the greens, where he is 58th in SG: Around the green, and 86th in Scrambling.
Tier 2
Collin Morikawa (22/1)
Collin Morikawa is only 24 years old, yet has 4 wins on the PGA Tour, including winning the PGA Championship last year at TPC Harding Park. Morikawa will be making his 2nd Masters appearance, after finishing 44th in his debut. Despite a lackluster debut, it’s not uncommon to have trouble navigating your way through Augusta on your first attempt. Morikawa should be a guy to take seriously this week. He is the best iron player on Tour, ranking 1st in SG: Approach and is 5th in GIR percentage. If Colin wants to put on the green jacket, his short game is going to have to show up this week, as he only ranks 77th in SG: Around the green. He’s already shown he has what it takes to perform on the big stage with a Major championship under his belt, and he has already won this season (WGC Workday Championship).
Webb Simpson (35/1)
Simpson has been incredible since the 2020 restart. In 18 events, Simpson has made 16/18 cuts, with 7 Top 10 finishes, and winning the very first event the RBC Heritage. What can scare people off of Webb this week is that he is 85th in SG: Approach on Tour, yet he’s 17th in GIR percentage. He boasts an incredible short game, 8th in SG: Around the Green and 13th in SG: Putting. He’s also tied for 2nd in Par 4 Scoring Average and 6th in overall Scoring Average. He’s placed in the Top 10 last two times at Augusta National, and a tie for 5th in 2019. He’s only shot under par 11 times in 30 career rounds at Augusta, yet 8 of those 11 rounds have come within the last three years of the tournament.
Longshot
Corey Conners (80/1)
Conners is one of the better ball-strikers on tour, ranking 12th in SG: Tee to Green and 13th in SG: Approach. Corey is coming into the Masters in pretty good form where he placed solo 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and solo 7th at The Players Championship. Where Conners has his issues is Around the Green where he ranks a whopping 150th on Tour. He placed tied for 10th at last year’s tournament, so he knows his way around the golf course and can shoot well. In 10 career rounds at Augusta, Conners has 7 rounds under par.
Top 5
Dustin Johnson (+185)
Not a ton of value here, but there is a good reason for that. Not only is DJ the defending Masters Champion, but he consistently always plays Augusta National well, and last year felt like it was long overdue. In the last five Masters tournaments, DJ has been in the Top 5 three times. In fact, in his last 20 rounds at Augusta, Johnson has only shot over par three times. He’s a guy worth consideration to win it, but Top 5 even at that price still seems like a better bet.
Patrick Cantlay (+450)
If you don’t like the price for DJ, how about Patrick Cantlay instead. He’s yet to crack the Top 5 yet in his career at the Masters, but definitely has the game suited to play well and possibly win a green jacket one day. In this instance, just a top 5 would do, as Cantlay has an impressive short game, and is one of the best Tee to Green players on the entire PGA Tour. Already with a win and two other results in the Top 5 this year, puts him in a great spot heading into this week.
Top 10
Scottie Scheffler (+350)
Scheffler is coming off an impressive performance at the WGC Match Play event where he lost to Billy Horschel in the Finals. Scottie made his Masters debut, collecting a Top 20 finish, and didn’t shoot over par in any of his four rounds, which is impressive his first time at Augusta. He’s playing well and feeling good about his game heading into this week, and his game seems to fit well at this course. Not only is Scheffler good off the tee, but it’s his short game (26th SG: Around the Green) that I think will keep him in the mix all weekend long.
Top 20
Si Woo Kim (+400)
Kim just missed out on the Top 20 both in the 2018 and 2019 Masters. The 25-year-old from South Korea picked up his 3rd career win on the PGA Tour this year at the American Express along with a T9 finish at The Players Championship. Kim has the game to compete in the Masters, it’s just a matter of putting it all together. Kim has a good short game, 22nd in SG: Around the Green and 11th in Scrambling.
Mark Ackerman 
Great site. Well written and researched!
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