Golf’s oldest tournament and final major of the season has finally arrived!
For the 149th time the Claret Jug will be up for grabs, this time at Royal St. George Golf Club, for this week’s Open Championship. It has hosted 14 total Open Championships, with only three winnings scores under par. Darren Clarke (Northern Ireland) was the last winner here, back in 2011 (-5), fending off Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson in the final round for his first and only major title.
The Course
Royal St George is a Par 70 golf course sitting at 7,189 yards. Located in Sandwich, Kent, England, it is the only course in the Open rota that’s located in Southern England and viewed as one of the toughest courses in the rotation. The property is filled with climatic dunes, which will call for consistent blind shots and undulated lies in the fairways. The greens should be firm and tough to hold, especially if the wind is howling like it famously does at The Open. No two holes go in quite the same direction, so players will have to battle figuring out which way the wind is going.
Key Stats
SG: Approach
Last decade, Open Champions hit 73% of greens in regulation. That number alone should tell you that elite ball-strikers win this golf tournament more times than not.
Top 5 players in the field SG: Approach
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Russel Henley
- Keegan Bradley
- Justin Thomas
Scrambling/SG: Around the Green
The last two majors at Royal St George have produced only FIVE players combined at a score under par. Getting up&down and scrambling out of trouble is going to be a must this week with how difficult the golf course is set up. Players with the best short game may stand out the most this week.
Top 5 players in the field in Scrambling percentage
- Webb Simpson
- Patrick Cantlay
- Brian Harman
- Russell Henley
- Harris English
Top 5 players in the field SG: Around the Green
- Danny Willet
- Christian Bezuidenhout
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Tony Finau
- Jordan Spieth
Other Key Stats
Bogey Avoidance
Top 5 in the field this week
- (Webb Simpson, Russel Henley, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo)
SG: Tee-To-Green
Top 5 in the field this week
- (Colin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas)
Favorites
Jon Rahm (8/1) $11,300 Draft Kings Salary
Jon Rahm is looking to become the first golfer since Jordan Spieth back in 2015, to win back-to-back major championships. Coming off his first major title just last month at Torrey Pines, Rahm played in the Scottish Open (a tune-up for the Open Championship) placing solo 7th two shots off the lead just last week. Hard to find any flaws in Rahm’s game, who has been in incredible form all season, leading the PGA Tour in Scoring Average and Total Strokes Gained. He is 2nd in SG: Tee-to-Green as well as SG: Off-the-Tee, and Top 10 in SG: Approach and Green in Regulation percentage. Rahm had always been a good putter in his career historically but had been struggling since making the equipment change from TaylorMade to Callaway at the beginning of the season. That all changed at the US Open, and if he continues to putt like he did last month, he will be adding another major title to his resume.
Cause of Concern
Maybe the only nitpick in Jon Rahm’s game right now would be his short game, where he ranks outside the Top 50 in Scrambling and SG: Around the Green. This area of the game will make or break his chances of winning the tournament this week.
Justin Thomas (18/1) $9,600 Draft Kings Salary
After winning The Players Championship back in March, Thomas has had a rather disappointing season, failing to crack inside the Top 10 since his 14th career victory on the PGA Tour. In the first three majors of the year, he had a missed cut at the PGA Championship and two finishes inside the Top 25, although he was never really in contention to win. Thomas excels at his approach game (5th SG: Approach) and has a very sound short game (37th Scrambling, 13th SG: Around the Green) which should bode well for him this week. His driver, on the other hand, has been a major issue for him, where he ranks 55th in SG: Off-the-Tee, far too low for a player of his caliber and ball-striking ability. The good news for Thomas, is he lead the entire field in SG: Driving last week at the Scottish Open, where he would go on to finish in a tie for 8th and going bogey-free for his last 26 holes. It looks like Thomas’ game is shaping into form just at the right time, heading into a major.
Cause of Concern
As always with Thomas, the putter is the biggest question mark surrounding his game, ranking 107th in SG: Putting this season. He’s got a new putter in the bag this week, so hopefully he can gain some new found confidence with the new flat stick this week.
Tier 2
Patrick Cantlay (35/1) Draft Kings Salary $8,900
Cantlay boasts one of the best short games on tour where he ranks 2nd in Scrambling and 9th in SG: Around the Green. That is going to be the most important skill this week as players try and get through this golf course. He’s also 4th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. He has two wins this season on the PGA Tour and coming off back-to-back Top 15’s, one of those being in the US Open.
Cause of Concern
In 18 major appearances, Cantlay has only cracked the Top 10 twice, with his best finish being T3 at the PGA Championship in 2019. His best finish at The Open Championship was T12 in 2018. It would be quite the jump up, yet his game definitely calls for it, there is just so much talent saturated within the game.
Longshot
Lucas Herbert (80/1) Draft Kings Salary $6,800
This is all about riding the hot hand, and I’m not sure if there’s anybody hotter right now than Lucas Herbert. The Australian, who competes on the European Tour, has jumped up 42 spots in the World Golf Rankings in just the last two weeks thanks to winning the Irish Open, then tied for 4th last week at the Scottish Open. Lucas has also placed inside the Top 20 in his last two starts on the PGA Tour (Memorial & Travelers). Herbert ranks 3rd in SG: Total on the European Tour, as well as 3rd in Putting and Off-the-Tee.
Cause of Concern
C’mon he’s 80/1 for a reason. Just be thankful if he’s even in the mix come the weekend.
Top 5
Brooks Koepka (+400) Draft Kings salary $10,700
You won’t find a player who brings it more than Brooks Koepka when it comes to Major Championships. In fact, since 2016, Brooks combined score to par is -84. The next closest to him is Dustin Johnson who’s -21, an astounding SIXTY-THREE shot difference. Koepka is a four-time major winner, while also finishing runner up 3 separate times. He has finished inside the Top 5 twelve times( 41%), in 29 events. Brooks is 10th in SG: Approach and 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green. Being outside the Top 100 in scrambling and bogey avoidance is what kept me from betting him to win it all.
Abraham Ancer (12/1) Draft Kings Salary $7,600
Ancer has five Top 5 finishes this season on Tour, his latest coming in his last tournament where he placed solo 4th at the Travelers Championship. Ancer has only played in two Open Championships before, missing the cut in both, however, those were over two and three years ago. Ancer is a much more improved player since then, he’s in the Top 20 in Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and Scoring Average on Tour. He also ranks 25th SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Accuracy, and 19th in Green in regulation percentage. With a T8 finish earlier this year at the PGA, and good current form, Ancer seems primed to collect his first top 5 in a major.
Top 10
Patrick Reed (+350) Draft Kings Salary $8,800
Reed is a top ten putter on tour and is in the Top 25 in Scrambling and SG: Around the Green. His struggles in the past have been off the tee, where he ranks 87th in SG: Off-the-Tee, but his Tee-to-Green numbers are much better where he ranks 27th, putting him 8th in SG: Total. He has six Top 10 finishes this season already, with one of those coming at the Masters earlier this year. Reed finished in the Top 20 at the PGA Championship and US Open. The last time the Open Championship was played in 2019, Reed finished T10.
Harris English (+600) Draft Kings Salary $7,300
After collecting his second win of the season just a couple of weeks ago after eight long playoff holes at the Travelers Championship, English is looking to take his recent good form and bring it with him for the last major of the season. Harris has been a wizard around the greens and with the flat stick in his hands (9th Scrambling & 22nd SG: Putting). The 12th ranked player in the world will be returning to The Open Championship for the first time since 2016, where he was a completely different golfer when he was only ranked 56th in the world.
Top 20
Russel Henley (+450) Draft Kings Salary $7,200
Henley ranks inside the Top 10 in SG: Approach (3rd), Scrambling (9th), and Bogey Avoidance (2nd). In his last three starts, he has finished inside the Top 20 (13th US Open, 19th Travelers, 11th John Deere). You won’t find many players on tour who are playing better and more consistent golf than Russell Henley right now.
First Round Leader
Joaquin Niemann (60/1) Draft Kings Salary $7,700
Niemann is coming off a very impressive performance at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he didn’t bogey a single hole in regulation (72 holes) before of course, he bogeyed the first hole of the playoff, knocking himself out of contention. Still one hell of a week, and great form heading into the final major of the year. His short game numbers have been troubling this season (56th Scrambling), but trending in the right direction, where he was successfully getting up & down all week in Detroit. He’s 5th on tour in total birdies and Scoring Average while ranking 24th in Bogey Avoidance. Finally, Niemann ranks 8th on Tour in Round 1 Scoring Average. Put those numbers up with the current form and confidence, and I think the Chile native could be primed for a big first round.
Draft Kings Lineup
- Justin Thomas—$9,600
- Patrick Cantlay—$8,900
- Patrick Reed—$8,800
- Matt Fitzpatrick—$7,900
- Abraham Ancer—$7,600
- Harris English—$7,300
Mark Ackerman 
Well done!
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